Tesla (TSLA) is once again making headlines, and this time with its push into the robotaxi market. The spotlight is on June 22, the tentative date CEO Elon Musk expects for the pilot launch of Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

This could be one of the most transformative milestones for the company, whose fate in the recent past has been tied to political narratives. The robotaxi initiative could redefine urban mobility, open up a new revenue stream for Tesla, and carve out a dominant position in an entirely new industry.

The pilot will begin with a small fleet, with full-scale production scheduled for 2026. If early trials prove successful, Musk has hinted at a rapid expansion.  

The timing of this initiative is strategic. The company has seen its core electric vehicle (EV) business lose momentum. Vehicle deliveries declined in the first quarter, and there’s little indication of a strong rebound in the second. Competitive pressure is mounting, especially in China. Moreover, Tesla is witnessing weakness in parts of Europe. Some of that damage is self-inflicted, as Musk’s increasingly visible political commentary has impacted the brand image, affecting consumers’ purchasing decisions.

Moreover, Musk’s recent public spat with President Donald Trump has added to the volatility. Although he later toned down his remarks, leading to a recovery in the stock, the episode served as a reminder of how closely Tesla’s stock performance is tied to its CEO’s behavior.

Tesla’s Long-Term Vision: More Than Just EVs

Despite recent volatility, Tesla shares have surged more than 85% over the past year. The market, it seems, is still betting on Tesla’s long-term vision, even if short-term execution remains bumpy.

That long-term vision extends well beyond electric vehicles. Tesla is positioning itself as a technology company rooted in automation and artificial intelligence (AI). The robotaxi initiative is just one piece of a broader innovation puzzle that includes Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, advanced manufacturing, and robotics. In fact, Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, is targeting commercial deployment as early as 2026, potentially opening new revenue streams in labor-intensive sectors.

These innovations are high-risk, high-reward bets. On one hand, they could revolutionize Tesla’s business model, turning it from an automaker into a diversified tech platform. On the other, they involve long lead times, significant regulatory hurdles, and uncertain consumer adoption rates. For instance, the FSD software has yet to receive broad regulatory approval, and it remains unclear how quickly consumers will embrace fully autonomous transportation.

The Robotaxi rollout offers a chance to showcase the technology in a real-world environment. However, investors should temper expectations. While Musk anticipates the platform gaining financial traction by late 2026, the early stages are unlikely to have a material impact. The same caution applies to Tesla’s refreshed Model Y, which has yet to deliver a sales boost.

Overall, the expectations remain aggressively bullish on Tesla’s ambitious projects. However, this could backfire if reality falls short of expectations. Then there’s the question of valuation. Tesla is one of the most richly valued stocks in the auto and tech sectors, and that premium assumes significant future growth. With delivery volumes declining and competition heating up in the EV space, Tesla’s high valuation makes it a high-risk bet, especially if growth fails to reaccelerate. While the robotaxi and FSD initiatives hold enormous promise, execution risk remains high, and timelines are far from guaranteed.

Is Tesla Stock a Buy Before June 22?

For investors with a high tolerance for volatility and a long-term outlook, Tesla could be worth a buy ahead of the June 22 Robotaxi pilot. But it’s not without risks.

However, Wall Street, for now, is cautious on Tesla. Analysts have a consensus “Hold” rating on the stock.

In short, Tesla’s robotaxi rollout could mark the beginning of a new growth chapter for the company, but investors should buckle up for a volatile ride.